Globally, pork consumption and production are anticipated to be relatively stable through 2023, however weak economic growth now being experienced across many economies could result in moderated consumer demand with an impact on pork prices despite being a relatively low cost protein.
livestock
Pork
- GVP $246 million est. Up 7% year-on-year.
- Production up 5% year-on-year to 65,000 tonnes cwt. c
- Prices up 5% and 7% for porkers and baconers respectively on the prior year.
Gross value of pork production is estimated at $246 million in 2022-23, 7% higher on the prior year, driven by an increase in pig prices with average porkers and baconers increasing by 5% and 7% respectively year on year. Production increased by 5% on the prior year to total 65 thousand tonnes (cwt)
c
for 2022-23. Producers confronted high feed prices during the year as global grain prices remained high.
Production
NSW pork production in 2022-23 was 5% higher on the previous year at 65 thousand tonnes cwt,
c
with slaughter numbers 5% higher, while average carcase weights have remained broadly consistent with the prior year at 74.6 kg cwt.
c
In comparison national production increased by 3% in 2022-23 year on year following the increase in slaughter numbers.
151
While production for 2022-23 increased in NSW from the prior year, longer term on going supply chain integration nationally has seen increased slaughter capacity in South Australia and Victoria as well as Queensland. 151 162 Since 2000 NSW production has declined, at an average compound annual rate of -3%, compared to a compound annual increase in national production of +1%. 151
Price
Australian pig prices increased by 5% and 7% for porkers and baconers respectively in 2022-23 over the previous year. The eastern average porker price averaging 409 c/kg cwt
c
and eastern baconer price 376 c/kg cwt
c
for 2022-23.
13
While domestic pig prices were higher the industry experienced higher production costs including feed costs which is the major cost input for pork producers. In contrast to the drought induced feed grain price rises experienced during 2018 to 2020, domestic cereal supply was strong in 2022-23 however global demand for grains supported domestic grain prices.
Other key inputs for producers such as electricity, which typically account for 75% of total energy costs in intensive Australian pig production systems for heat, ventilation and irrigation, and for feed milling, also increased substantially through 2022-23 with the average NSW wholesale spot price averaging $147/MWh compared to the prior 5-year average of $78/MWh.
184
195
Pig and feed grain prices 2 13 a
- Feed wheat price index
- Eastern porker price index
Pig farmgate prices have been broadly consistent with retail prices for pork which increased by 4% over the 12 months to the close of 2022-23.
24
These higher prices were in the context of generally higher retail prices for all livestock products seen over the medium term. Pork retail prices have risen at slower rate than other red meats and pork remains competitive with poultry. For example, domestic retail prices for beef and poultry meat have increased 41% and 17% respectively over the 5 years to the end of 2022-23 while pork prices have increased 20% over the same period.
24
Longer term, changing consumer preferences and relative price movements have combined to shift consumption of meat products. Since 2000-01 Australian per capita consumption of beef has decreased 38%, and sheep meat by 58%, compared to per capita consumption increases of 45% and 31% for chicken meat and pig meat respectively, based on a five-year average consumption to 2022-23.
2
Australian meat consumption and retail prices 2 24
- Beef and veal retail price
- Pork retail price
- Lamb and goat retail price
- Poultry retail price
- Beef and Veal kg cwt/capita
- Lamb and Mutton kg cwt/capita
- Pig meat kg cwt/capita
- Chicken meat kg cwt/capita
Trade
NSW imports of pork decreased marginally in quantity terms in 2022-23 to total 46 thousand tonnes (swt),
b
a decrease of 2% over the prior year. In value terms imports were up 6.7% year-on-year, to $235 million in 2022-23, reflecting an average higher price for pork imports compared to 2021-22.
35
Imports from the Netherlands, Denmark and the United States continue to dominate in volume terms representing and 28%, and 25% share of imports respectively. Import volumes from the United States were 90% higher year-on-year and accounted for 25% share of imports in 2022-23.
35
Similarly, the bulk of imports in value terms are accounted for by the Netherlands (30%), Denmark (28%), and the United States (22%). Imports from Denmark were notably lower in 2022-23 following a large increase the prior year which came largely at the expense of the United States’ market share. The United States recovered most of this lost market share in 2022-23, this time at the expense of Danish imports.
35
NSW Imports by Volume 35
- Netherlands
- Denmark
- United States
- Ireland
- Canada
- Other
NSW Imports by Value 35
- Netherlands
- Denmark
- United States
- Ireland
- Canada
- Other
NSW exports remain a relatively small component compared to the domestic market, with pork exports in volume terms increasing 6% year-on-year but of lower total value down 4%, to total $19.9 million in 2022-23. Singapore remained the most valuable market in 2022-23 at $4.9 million, representing higher value pork products, although this was 25% lower than 2021-22.
NSW Exports by Volume 35
- Malaysia
- Philippines
- New Zealand
- Korea, South
- Vietnam
- Other
NSW Exports by Value 35
- Singapore
- New Zealand
- Philippines
- Malaysia
- Papua New Guinea
- Other
Macroeconomic Conditions
Global pork production remains mixed with export shares amongst the major producers continuing to shift following on from the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in China. While ASF remains a continuing threat to global pork supply with continuing outbreaks notably in Asian and eastern European countries, the major disruption caused by ASF in China has largely resolved. China’s pig herd is estimated to have reached 452.6 million head in 2023, 46% above the ASF impacted herd of 310.4 million reached in 2020, and ahead of the herd size of 442.1 million achieved in 2017 prior to ASF. Consequently, China’s pork imports in 2023 are estimated to be just 40% of the peak import volume in 2020, at 2.2 million tonnes (cwt)
c
in 2023. China’s domestic pork prices have returned to near pre-ASF levels averaging 19.5 RMB/kg in 2022-23 compared to an average pork price of 31 RMB/kg over the financial years 2019-20 and 2020-21.
46
57
68
Canada’s pork production is expected to decline in the near term with the industry experiencing the closure of slaughter facilities, attributed to labour shortages, and competitive export markets with increased competition from United States and Brazil. Canada has also experienced relatively high feed prices, which have been exacerbated by recent poor cropping seasons. 79 90 In the case of Brazil, exports are expected to eclipse Canada’s in 2023, having increased 61% in volume terms since
2019 to become the third largest exporter behind the European Union (EU) and the United States.
101
EU pork production is expected to be lower in 2023 impacted by increasing environmental regulations and higher input costs crimping margins for producers. As a result, pork imports from EU countries, a major source for Australia, are likely to become less competitive compared to other exporters such as the United States.
101
Outlook
Australian pork production is forecast to decline slightly through 2023 after stronger than expected production in 2022. Pork producers in early 2023 continued to face high feed grain prices relative to pork prices, which is anticipated to have an impact on slaughter numbers and pork production through 2023-24. With imports accounting for just under half of Australia’s pigmeat consumption the domestic industry is directly influenced by the global pig industry.
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Global pork consumption and production are expected to be relatively stable through 2023, however weak economic growth now being experienced across many economies has the potential to moderate consumer demand.
Stronger Primary Industries Strategy
Veterinary engagement in EAD responses
Strategic Outcome
Biosecure Industries and Environment
- 1.1 Lead the preparation for and prevention of future biosecurity threats
Veterinary professionals play a pivotal role in helping to protect NSW animal industries. Working on the frontline, they not only provide veterinary services to owners but also play an important role in educating them about animal health and good biosecurity practices to prevent disease introduction, establishment and spread.
Following large-scale bushfires and floods in recent years, there is appetite from the private veterinary sector and government for clarity and consistency in this space.
This project built private veterinarians’ emergency response understanding, strengthened NSW’s animal biosecurity awareness and EAD preparedness in partnership with the Australian Veterinary Association (AVA), Vets Beyond Borders (VBB) and the NSW veterinary practitioners board (VPB).
In 2022-23 the project delivered:
- 7 private veterinarian specific EAD workshops and conferences across NSW
- 400 EAD awareness information packs delivered
- 538 EAD sampling and PPE kits distributed
- 500 places in AIIMS awareness training provided for private practitioners.
