Rice

GVP $266 million est. Up 15% year-on-year.
Total paddy rice production reached 618,000 tonnes, up 23% year-on-year.
Ample rice supplies, both domestically and in key competitor countries, impacted farm gate prices.

It was a season of mixed fortunes for NSW rice growers. After three consecutive La Nina events, the 2023-24 year began with maximum opening water allocations to meet most entitlements and a record volume of consumptive carryover water. In the southern rice growing region of the Riverina, this boosted grower confidence even in the face of the El Nino forecast, and rice production increased year-on-year. However, in the Norther Rivers rice growing region, rice blast impacted and destroyed some crops.

Production

All regulated river high security license holders received close to their full opening allocation, including 97% in the NSW Murray and 95% in the Murrumbidgee. All major irrigation dams held at least 90% of their full storage capacity.²⁰ General security license holders in the Murrumbidgee commenced their 2023-24 water year with a 37% allocation, whilst in the Murray it was a 55% allocation.⁵³

Driven by lower irrigation costs, a 12% increase in plantings and excellent yields, total paddy rice production reached 618,000 tonnes, a 23% increase over the previous season and 24% above the 10-year average.⁶ Two crops in the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area surpassed the previous yield record of 16.2 tonnes/ha to return to new highs of 16.85 tonnes/ha and 16.3 tonnes/ha respectively, and there were numerous reports of growers achieving yields of 15 tonnes/ha.¹⁵²⁸⁰ Despite favourable growing conditions over the summer, wet conditions just prior and during harvest did present some challenges, with grain quality impacting some crops. In contrast, growers in the Northern Rivers region had a disappointing season upon the detection of rice blast in some crops. Rice blast is a fungal disease and is considered the most significant rice disease worldwide. Rice blast can impact plants at all growth stages.⁵⁶ The incidence and spread of rice blast is predominantly influenced by climatic conditions with warm temperatures (around 22°C) and high humidity (>90% RH) at night favouring infection. This was the first detection of rice blast disease in rice in NSW, although it has been known to occur in rice crops in Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory for some time. The fungus lives on a range of grasses, many of which are naturalised in the Northern Rivers region.

Whilst an estimated 170 hectares of rice, or 30% of the region's crops, were affected and subsequently destroyed, rice grown in the Northern Rivers region only contributes on average approximately 1-2% of the total NSW rice crop, so total state production was not materially impacted.

Rice production and southern water allocations

Murrumbidgee-Murray GS Water Allocations
Rice Production (kt) (RHS)

Download data (.XLSX)

Source: ABARES (2024)

Global rice production is estimated to have increased to 530.2million (milled basis) in 2023 and total utilisation was stagnant at 525 million tonnes, as high international prices depressed demand.⁷¹

Price

International Rice Prices

Thailand, 5% Broken - Long Grain
US No. 2, 4% Broken - Long Grain
US California Medium Grain (FOB mill)
Australian Rice Export Price (Cost & Freight)

Download data (.XLSX)

Source: FAO (2024) , GTA (2024)

A final paddy price of $430/tonne for medium grain was realised for CY23 ¹²⁹ down 7% from the record paddy price of $461 for CY22. The large domestic crop, significant carryover, increased Northern hemisphere competition and currency depreciations against the US dollar in some key Asian exporting countries, triggered a drop in international tender pricing for short-medium grain as the 2023-24 year progressed.¹²⁹;⁷³ Farm gate prices for Californian short-medium grain fell dramatically, slipping to their lowest level since April 2021.⁷³ The Californian rice industry is widely viewed as the direct competition for NSW rice in the majority of export markets.

Trade and Macroeconomic Conditions

Australian rice exports increased by 12% to 255 thousand tonnes, well up on the 10-year average of 199 thousand tonnes driven by volume growth in key international retail and tender markets.⁷⁹ Value-wise, exports were up 10% year-on-year to $393 million as lower prices partially offset the volume gains.⁷⁹ SunRice, the sole exporter of NSW-grown rice, noted strong volume growth in the Middle East, and market share growth in New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait.¹²⁹

The Australia-United Kingdom Free Trade Agreement (FTA) came into effect on 31 May 2023. One of the key outcomes of this FTA was the immediate elimination of tariffs on goods including medium grain rice and a permanent annual duty-free quota of 1,000 tonnes for long-grain milled rice. Previously the applied tariffs in the UK for rice were as high as 121GBP/tonne.⁵¹ Whilst rice exports from Australia are confidential, it is assumed that exporters took advantage of this new market access opportunity during 2023-24.

There are no trade restrictions on the import of milled rice into Australia with approximately half of Australia’s domestic consumption coming from imported rice. Imports provide for the supply of specialty varieties, mostly long grain varieties which are not grown domestically, and act as a buffer for the industry, supplementing domestic supply during times of low production. Australian rice imports rose 7% in 2023-24, with the top 3 origins being Thailand, India and Vietnam.⁷⁹

In late July 2023, India announced they would ban exports of non-basmati white rice after heavy rains damaged crops and domestic prices rose 3% in a month and 11.5% over year-ago levels. High international prices were cited as a key reason for this decision. This followed a 20% duty on exports introduced in September 2022. India accounts for 40% of world rice exports with non-basmati white rice accounting for 25% according to the Indian Government.¹⁰³

Australian Rice Exports and Imports

Export value
Import value
Export Average Value
Import Average Value

Download data (.XLSX)

Source: GTA (2024)

Whilst Australia imports a high share of its total domestic rice consumption, less than 30% comes from India and much of that is basmati rice, which is not affected by the ban. However, there are a number of countries which have a high reliance on rice imports from India, including Qatar, Togo, Azerbaijan, Benin, Sri Lanka and Egypt, with importers likely switching to rice from Thailand and Vietnam to meet demand.

Outlook

Whilst rainfall prior to sowing has been below average so far in the southern Basin, near full storages in dams mean that most entitlements in the southern MDB had high opening allocations. Nevertheless, allocations were lower than 2023-24.²¹ However, combined with high carryover volumes, rice growers can continue to have confidence in water availability for CY25.

Although irrigation water availability remains high, rice production is forecast to fall in 2024-25 to an estimated 515 thousand tonnes,³ largely influenced by a lower area planted and lower global prices. SunRice, the major rice processor and seed distributor, has actively sought to reduce and limit their planting base by 30% in the lead up to the 2024-25 planting season, citing high carryover volumes and falling global prices as the key drivers.¹³¹

SunRice has released an indicative paddy price guide of $370 - $430/tonne for CY24 Medium Grain Reiziq ¹³⁰ which would indicate a 7% decline year-on-year using the mid-point of the range.

DPIRD Recognising Success

NSW Food Authority celebrates 20 years of food safety

The NSW Food Authority is Australia’s first agency responsible for regulating and monitoring food safety across the entire supply chain. Celebrating 20 years, the Authority undertakes investigations and licensing, including utilising advanced technology, as well as working with industry, other agencies, and the community, to keep the state’s food safe.

The NSW Food Authority is this year celebrating 20 years of keeping the state’s food safe and protecting the health and wellbeing of the people of NSW.

Since 2004, the Food Authority has worked closely with the food industry, NSW Health, local councils and the wider community to reduce foodborne illness and its impacts.

Food Authority CEO Dr Lisa Szabo said it was Australia’s first agency responsible for regulating and monitoring food safety across the entire supply chain, from farm to fork. "Safe food is big business in NSW. It supports more than 600,000 jobs and underpins many rural and regional communities. In fact, about 40% of the state’s food processing businesses are located in regional areas,” she said.

“The Food Authority plays a vital role, ensuring consumers can have a high level of confidence in the food they buy.” Dr Szabo said the Food Authority had many wins in improving food safety standards and reducing foodborne illness over the past two decades. These include NSW leading the way for improved disease surveillance through whole genome sequencing technology. “This really was a game changer in Australia for identifying foodborne illness outbreaks – and being able to respond to them sooner,” she said. “As we celebrate this milestone we acknowledge and thank the industry and agencies that contribute to delivering safe food for the people of this state. “Consumers also have an important role to store and prepare food safely – they are the last link in the food safety chain.”

Fast food facts Each year the NSW Food Authority: • investigates around 300 foodborne illness outbreaks involving two or more people • licenses 14,600 food facilities • conducts around 5,000 audits on food producers and processors • supports over 55,000 retail food businesses • responds to over 20,000 helpline enquiries and reports from industry and consumers • has more than 1.5 million unique visits to its website foodauthority.nsw.gov.au.