Value of seasonal climate forecasts in Australian agriculture
Agriculture’s basic dependence on climatically sensitive biological systems often exerts the most influence on the sector from one year to the next. Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) provide opportunities for farmers to better match farm decisions to pending climatic conditions.
Using SCFs, farmers can select crop types, varieties, stocking rates and nutrient inputs that are better suited to expected seasonal climatic conditions. SCFs offer economic value by providing farmers with greater certainty about the real state of nature at the time decisions are made.
Insufficient evidence about the value of SCFs has been considered to be a major factor limiting their adoption in Australia. To help address this, a series of case studies (southern beef, prime lamb, northern beef, southern cropping, northern cropping, western cropping, rice and sugar) were developed aimed to develop a better understanding of where, when and how SCFs offer value in agricultural production systems.
The nine case studies provide examples of the potential value of a forecast based on a particular production system, at a specific time of year and at a specific location with its own historical climate variability.
This research was supported by funding from the Australian Government Department of Agriculture and Water Resources as part of its Rural R&D for Profit program.
Case Studies
Prime lamb production in southern Australia
Seasonal climate forecasts were found to improve the profitability of prime lamb production systems in southern Australia by between $0 and $54/ha by improving stocking rate decisions at key times.
- Visit the Fact Sheet - Climate forecasts and prime lamb production in southern Australia for more information.
- For the full report, download the Technical Report - Climate forecasts and prime lamb production in southern Australia.
Beef production in southern Australia
Seasonal climate forecasts were found to improve the profitability of beef production systems in southern Australia by between $0 and $28/ha by improving stocking rate decisions at key times.
- Visit the Fact Sheet - Climate forecasts and beef production in southern Australia for more information.
- For the full report, download the Technical Report - Climate forecasts and beef production in southern Australia.
Beef production in northern Australia
Seasonal climate forecasts were found to improve the profitability of beef production systems in northern Australia by between $0 and $14/steer by improving stocking rate decisions at key times.
- Visit the Fact Sheet - Climate forecasts and beef production in northern Australia for more information.
- For the full report, download the Technical Report - Climate forecasts and beef production in northern Australia.
Grain growing in southern Australia
Seasonal climate forecasts were found to improve the returns for grain growers in southern Australia by between $0 and $20/ha by improving winter cropping decisions.
- Visit the Fact Sheet - Climate forecasts and grain growing in southern New South Wales for more information.
- For the full report, download the Technical Report - Climate forecasts and grain growing in southern New South Wales.
Grain growing in northern New South Wales
Seasonal climate forecasts were found to improve the returns for grain growers by between $0 and $204/ha by improving summer cropping decisions.
- Visit the Fact Sheet - Climate forecasts and grain growing in northern New South Wales for more information.
- For the full report, download the Technical Report - Climate forecasts and grain growing in northern New South Wales.
Grain growing in Western Australia 
Seasonal climate forecasts can provide marginally better yield estimates for grain growers in Western Australia and result in a better match between planned and realised forward selling strategies. However, the income effects of these improved strategies varied because of wheat price volatility.
- Visit the Fact Sheet - Climate forecasts and grain growing in Western Australia for more information.
- For the full report, download the Technical Report - Climate forecasts and grain growing in Western Australia.
Dryland cotton growing
Seasonal climate forecasts were found to improve the profitability of dryland cotton systems by between $0 and $517/ha by improving decisions about planting.
- Visit the Fact Sheet - Climate forecasts and dryland cotton growing for more information.
- For the full report, download the Technical Report - Climate forecasts and dryland cotton growing.
Rice production in Australia 
Evapotranspiration forecasts were found to improve the profitability of rice production systems in Australia by between $0 and $120/ha by improving decisions around the timing of rice field drainage.
- Visit the Fact Sheet - Climate forecasts and rice production in Australia for more information.
- For the full report, download the Technical Report - Climate forecasts and rice production in Australia.
Sugar growing in Queensland 
Seasonal climate forecasts were found to improve the profitability of sugarcane production systems by between $0 and $2,358/ha by improving harvesting time decisions.
- Visit the Fact Sheet - Climate forecasts and sugar growing in Queensland for more information.
- For the full report, download the Technical Report - Climate forecasts and sugar growing in Queensland.