El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

(Issued 2 April 2024)

• The Bureau of Meteorology’s El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status is currently at El Niño
• Oceanic and atmospheric indicators are consistent with a decaying El Niño.
• Climate models indicate that the ENSO is likely to return to neutral state in autumn 2024. Four out of seven international models are indicating a La Niña by late winter. However, predictions made in early autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year.
• Forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with caution. ENSO forecasts have historically had their lowest skill for forecasts issued in April, with skill increasing from May.