NSW summary

Overview

Drought conditions continue but at a lower intensity in parts of NSW.

• The NSW DPI Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) shows that 45% of NSW is in one of the three drought categories at the end of March 2024.
• There was highly variable rainfall in early autumn for much of NSW, with the highest totals received in the northeast of the state.
• Although there are signs of recovery for some regions, further rainfall is critical in aiding a longer-term drought recovery. The impacts of early April rain events will not be evident until the May update. At the time of this reports production (5 April) a significant rainfall event was influencing much of NSW. The implications of this event will be known in the coming weeks and reported in the next edition.
• Many areas are still managing the impacts of this long-term drought event. This is continuing to provide challenges for producers implementing drought management and recovery strategies for their farm enterprises.

Regional overview

NSW DPI is closely monitoring several regions where the underlying drought indicators have declined in recent weeks.

• This includes parts of the Central West, Central Tablelands, Riverina and Murray LLS Regions. This is driven by ongoing moderate to low levels of stored soil moisture and medium-term rainfall deficits across these regions.
• Much of the Hunter remains in the Drought and Intense Drought categories. Areas remain dry along the south coast with the Bega region in the Drought category. NSW DPI will continue to monitor these regions closely.
• The decision-making environment continues to be challenging for many NSW farmers. Producers are relying on an autumn break to sow winter crops and prepare livestock systems for the winter. Available remote sensing information of pasture conditions highlights that there is considerable variability within and between regions. Farm water supply is also variable across many regions due to hot conditions and variable rainfall throughout March.

Seasonal climate outlook

The seasonal climate outlook is for a high chance of very warm conditions across NSW and a decreased chance of above median rainfall for much of NSW in the April to June period.

• The seasonal rainfall outlook indicates that there is 25% to 55% chance of above median rainfall for most of NSW for the April to June period.
• Temperatures are expected to be well above median across NSW for the outlook period.
• The ENSO Outlook status is at El Niño but weakening, and the Southern Oscillation Index is negative.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) value is neutral.
• Other climate drivers like the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and local systems continue to bring the prospect of instability in week-to-week weather during this forecast period.