NSW summary

Overview

Continued rainfall steadily improves drought conditions and recovery in many parts of NSW.

• The NSW DPI Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) shows that 34% of NSW is in one of the three drought categories at the end of May 2024. The area in the Drought category has declined during May and less than 1% of NSW remains in this category.
• Rainfall was widespread and variable through May for much of NSW, with the highest totals received along the coastal fringe of the state. Southern NSW received lower totals with many locations in the Riverina and Murray regions received totals below 50mm for the month.
• Conditions are mixed across much of the state. Some underlying dryness remains in the southeast and parts of the tablelands, with low soil moisture levels despite high rainfall and pasture/crop response. Production outlooks are positive for many areas in central and northern parts of the State, with timely rainfall allowing for ideal sowing conditions and good germination of early sown varieties.
• At the time of writing (5 June), NSW had received widespread follow up rainfall across much of NSW during late May and the first week of June. This will aid crop and livestock production across the State and assist and improve continued recovery from particularly in the Hunter and parts of central north NSW.
• Overall, some locations are experiencing favourable production conditions, following a good autumn break and recent follow up rain. Further rain over the next month should see recovery continue and a further easing of drought conditions.

Regional Insights

Conditions continue to improve across NSW, and the production outlook remains positive for many regions.

• Seasonal conditions continue to improve across much of the Hunter with a further reduction in the Drought category throughout May and some areas entering the Recovery category.
• Seasonal conditions remain variable for the South East, though rainfall totals have resulted in differing rates of drought recovery and on ground conditions.

NSW DPI continues to monitor several regions where the underlying drought indicators have been in decline for several months.

• This includes parts of the Central Tablelands where soil moisture levels have continued to decline.
• Drought affected areas have expanded in the Riverina and Murray LLS Regions. This is driven by ongoing moderate to low levels of stored soil moisture and continued medium-term rainfall deficits across these regions.

Northeastern NSW has received high rainfall totals throughout autumn

• This has resulted in challenging management conditions due to wet and waterlogged paddocks, particularly in low lying areas.

The decision-making environment continues to be challenging for many NSW farmers entering winter, with considerable variability within and between regions.

Seasonal climate outlook

The seasonal climate outlook is for a high chance of very warm conditions across NSW and an increased chance of above median rainfall for parts of NSW in the June to August period.

• The seasonal rainfall outlook indicates that there is 50% to 65% chance of above median rainfall for most of NSW for the June to August period.
• Temperatures are expected to be well above median across NSW for the outlook period.
• The ENSO Outlook status is neutral, and the Southern Oscillation Index is positive.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) value is neutral.
• Other climate drivers like the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and local systems continue to bring the prospect of instability in week-to-week weather during this forecast period.