NSW summary

Overview

Improvement in drought conditions and recovery continues for many parts of NSW.

• The NSW Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) shows that 23% of NSW is in one of the three drought categories at the end of June 2024. The area in the Drought category remains at less than 1% of NSW.
• Rainfall was widespread and variable through June for much of NSW, with low totals received in the western NSW and the far north coast. Parts of Greater Sydney and the South East received high totals between 200 – 300mm for the month.
• Conditions remain mixed across much of the state. The easing of conditions is positive for landholders, with winter farm management decisions critical to longer term improvement.
• Some underlying dryness remains in the south and parts of the tablelands, with low stored soil moisture levels despite good rainfall and pasture/crop response. Production outlooks remain positive for many areas in the central and northern parts of the State.
• Cooler conditions over the last several weeks have restricted pasture growth and reduced its feeding quality for livestock across most of the state.
• Overall, some locations continue to experience favourable production conditions, with good follow up rain. Further rain over the next month should see continued recovery and a further easing of drought conditions.

Regional Insights

Conditions continue to improve across NSW, and the production outlook remains positive for many regions.

• Seasonal conditions continue to improve across much of the North West, North Coast, Central West, and Hunter with a further expansion of areas in the Recovery category.
• Seasonal conditions remain variable for the South East, though recent rainfall has resulted in differing rates of drought recovery and on variable ground conditions across the region.

DPIRD continues to monitor several regions where the underlying drought indicators have been in decline for several months.

• Declining seasonal conditions continue to expand in the eastern parts of the Riverina and Murray LLS Regions, a trend which has been evident for several months. Some locations entered the Drought category of the NSW CDI during June.
• Rainfall was below to very much below average for June and winter temperatures will continue to limit pasture growth reducing the effectiveness of any rainfall in these regions over the coming months.

The decision-making environment continues to be challenging for many NSW farmers, with considerable variability within and across regions.

Seasonal climate outlook

The seasonal climate outlook is for an increased chance of above median rainfall for NSW in the July to September period.

• The seasonal rainfall outlook indicates that there is 55% to 75% chance of above median rainfall for most of NSW for the July to September period.
• Minimum temperatures are expected to be well above median across NSW for the outlook period.
• The ENSO Outlook status is neutral, and the Southern Oscillation Index is negative.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) value is currently neutral.
• Other climate drivers like the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and local systems continue to bring the prospect of instability in week-to-week weather during this forecast period.