NSW summary

Overview

New South Wales is generally experiencing favourable seasonal conditions leading into the final month of summer.

• Rainfall over summer has been highly variable across NSW. For most of the state summer storms have been timely and effective in providing some relief from the warm temperatures and high evaporation rates that peak at this time of year.
• The NSW Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) shows that 84% of NSW is in the Non-Drought or Recovery categories at the end of January 2025.

Dry conditions remain for part of NSW

• Some regions missed recent storm rainfall during January, and along with seasonally high temperatures, are seeing on ground conditions deteriorate. This includes parts of the Western, Hunter, Greater Sydney, Northern Tablelands and North West Local Land Services (LLS) regions.
• The ongoing dry conditions in the south of NSW have expanded (Riverina, Murray, Western and South East LLS regions). DPIRD continue to monitor conditions closely in the south of the state.
• Approximately 16% of the state is in the CDI Drought Affected category. Although not at severe levels these areas warrant close assessment as the summer closes, to determine if a more intense drought event is developing.

Drought forecast

• DPIRD’s Drought Forecast indicates that drought conditions are likely to continue in parts of the South East, Western, Riverina and Murray LLS regions out to the end of April 2025.
• Drought conditions will also likely expand in north of the state, and the Hunter LLS regions, while parts of the Central Tablelands may transition into the Drought Affected category by April 2025.

Regional Insights

Rainfall deficits and dry conditions continue for some regions.

• Areas in the South East, Western, Riverina and Murray continue to experience dryer conditions. Rainfall throughout December and early January provided some relief but was highly variable and not sufficient to bring a widespread change in conditions.
• Some isolated parts of NSW experienced dryer conditions since October, and mild rainfall deficits have emerged in the Northern Tablelands, North West and Hunter LLS regions.

Visit the Regional breakdown section of this report for a more details analysis of each Local Land Services region.

Seasonal climate outlook

The seasonal climate outlook forecasts above median rainfall and warm temperatures as the more likely outcome for most of NSW in the February to April 2025 period.

• There is an 45% to above 75% chance of rainfall exceeding the historical median across NSW for the February to April 2025 period, depending on location.
• The temperature outlook indicates that there is a moderate to high likelihood (55% to above 80% chance) of above median maximum temperatures across NSW during the February to April 2025 period.
• The current ENSO value is -0.89 and the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index is currently +3.1. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently -0.02. These values are current as of 2 January 2025.