NSW summary

Overview

Widespread, timely rainfall improves the production outlook for much of northern and central NSW.

• March rainfall was well above average in northern, the northeastern and parts of western NSW. These falls were timely for many regions, for example the Northern Tablelands where drier conditions had persisted for some time, allowing producers to capitalise on this recent rainfall.
• Rainfall towards the end of March in northern NSW caused water logging and localised flooding. Major flood waters draining from central and western Queensland are expected to flood parts of Northern and Western NSW over the coming weeks.
• Up to 87% of the state is in the Non-Drought or Recovery categories of the long-term drought indicator (NSW Combined Drought Indicator) at the end of March 2025. Conditions in the south the state remain challenging with the impact of longer-term drought conditions evident.

Variable rainfall and warm autumn temperatures have resulted in seasonal conditions remaining challenging to the south and parts of western of NSW.

• A large region to the south of NSW remains in the ‘Drought Affected’ category of the NSW CDI. March rainfall in this broad region was highly variable ranging from average to areas of above average for the month. While providing some relief this was not substantive enough to fully reverse the dry conditions, and long-term soil water and rainfall deficits remain.
• Key areas of concern are the far south-west corner of NSW and a small area east of Wagga Wagga. The far southwest has well below average rainfall for the calendar year to date and has been in the Drought Affected category for 6-12 months given poor rainfall effectiveness. East of Wagga Wagga there are intense long term soil water deficits, and the area is in the ‘Drought’ category.
• March rainfall in the Central and Southern Tablelands was well below average and short term (surface) soil water deficits have emerged in this region.
• NSW faces a highly complex set of in field conditions and trends, with high variability evident at the local level. More detail is available for each LLS region in the regional breakdown section of this Update.

Forecast conditions

The most likely outcome is for drought conditions to expand across NSW.

• DPIRD’s Drought Forecast indicates that drought conditions are likely to expand in parts of southern and western NSW at the end of June 2025.
• Drought conditions will also likely expand into central regions of NSW, Hunter and southeast of the state.
• Forecast ensemble agreement and historical accuracy vary by region. In this forecast period regions of moderate to low agreement correspond to those that are forecast to have intensifying drought conditions.

Note: forecasts have less skill at this time of year that at other times.

The seasonal climate outlook is for near median to below median rainfall and warm temperatures as the most likely outcome for much of NSW in the April to June period.  

• There is a 30% to 75% chance of rainfall exceeding the historical median across NSW for the reporting period, depending on location.
• The temperature outlook indicates that there is a moderate to high likelihood (55% to above 80% chance) of above median maximum and minimum temperatures for NSW for the reporting period.
• The current ENSO value is -0.18 and the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index is currently +13.8. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently +0.74. These values are current as of 2 March 2025.