What is the NSW DPIRD Climate Vulnerability Assessment? ⏷
Climate change is altering the biosecurity risks for many agricultural commodities across NSW. Primary producers need evidence-based information about the changing climate, and the risks and opportunities it may bring.
The NSW DPIRD Climate Vulnerability Assessments are enhancing the resilience of our primary industries by providing information and data to help the sector better plan for, and respond to, climate change. They have assessed climate change impacts for extensive livestock, broadacre and irrigated cropping, marine fisheries, forestry, horticulture and viticulture, and important biosecurity risks associated with these industries to inform sound planning, risk management and adaptation decisions.
How we assessed climate suitability ⏷
Climate projections were sourced from Climate Change in Australia’s ‘Application Ready Data’. This dataset is comprised of projections from an ensemble of 8 global climate models, each presenting a plausible future climate. Low confidence in the projected changes due to differences between the models is noted in the text. Care should be taken when interpreting these results.
The Climate Vulnerability Assessment is intended to highlight potential industry- or regional-level changes. Intermediate and high emissions scenarios were used in the assessments (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), but these are not the only future scenarios possible. The inclusion of climate variables important to the commodities production was based on published research, expert knowledge and data quality and availability.
Climate suitability was assessed on a monthly timescale, with the reported climate suitability representing the average for a given month over all years in the dataset. This reflects the pattern of life stages for Sclerotinia stem rot and the need to determine which months are likely to pose the greatest risk to host commodities.
Learn more in the Climate Vulnerability Assessment Project Framework.
Climate impacts: expected challenges for primary industries
Changes in climate suitability are likely across all key life stages of S. sclerotiorum by 2050, under both emission scenarios.
Changes to overall monthly climate suitability for S. sclerotiorum affect Sclerotinia stem rot in NSW in different ways:
- January and June to November – there are likely to be minimal decreases in climate suitability in the cropping region. The decrease is likely to be greatest under the high emissions scenario (low to high confidence).
- February to May and December – Climate suitability in the cropping region is expected to remain similar to what has been historically experienced under both emissions scenarios (low to high confidence).
The effects of Sclerotinia stem rot on canola in NSW will depend on:
- the future distribution of canola,
- changes in production timings, and
- the overlap between susceptible life stages of canola and the lifecycle of S. sclerotiorum.
Overall, changes to climate suitability for Sclerotinia stem rot by 2050 are likely to have minimal impacts on NSW's key canola production regions. Decreases in climate suitability during August may allow the canola industry to reduce fungicide treatment during this period. A minimal reduction in climate suitability may occur in some areas, potentially reducing the duration of favourable conditions for disease development and thus reducing the disease’s impact on production. A reduction in disease management and production costs may result. Current strategies to manage the disease are likely to remain effective.
Where can I find the climate suitability maps?
Maps of historical and future climate suitability for commodities were produced to demonstrate where in the state a commodity is likely to thrive or else be limited by future climatic conditions. The maps are not provided on these webpages but can be found in the Climate Vulnerability Assessment Summary Report (PDF, 41425.92 KB).
Sclerotinia stem rot Factsheet
(PDF, 346.45 KB)
Summary Report
(PDF, 41425.92 KB)
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