Cherry | Lapin
NSW cherry growing regions will maintain very high suitability for production under a changing climate.
Cherries in NSW
NSW is Australia’s equal largest producer of sweet cherries (with Victoria, 28%), a high-value stone fruit. Increases in exports, particularly to Asian markets, have led to a rapid expansion in cherry plantings across the state since 2012. The map shows the main cherry growing regions in NSW. Darker colours represent a larger production of cherries.
The key cherry phenophases assessed in this project are post-harvest, dormancy, budswell and budburst, flowering, cell division and cell expansion.
What is the NSW DPIRD Climate Vulnerability Assessment? ⏷
Climate change is altering the growing conditions for many agricultural commodities across NSW. Primary producers need evidence-based information about the changing climate, and the risks and opportunities it may bring.
The NSW DPIRD Climate Vulnerability Assessments are enhancing the resilience of our primary industries by providing information and data to help the sector better plan for, and respond to, climate change. They have assessed climate change impacts for extensive livestock, broadacre and irrigated cropping, marine fisheries, forestry, horticulture and viticulture, and important biosecurity risks associated with these industries to inform sound planning, risk management and adaptation decisions.
How we assessed climate suitability ⏷
Climate projections were sourced from Climate Change in Australia’s ‘Application Ready Data’. This dataset is comprised of projections from an ensemble of 8 global climate models, each presenting a plausible future climate. The models differ in their projections, giving rise to uncertainty which is reflected in the confidence statements given in brackets. Care should be taken when interpreting these results.
The Climate Vulnerability Assessment is intended to highlight potential industry- or regional-level changes. Intermediate and high emissions scenarios were used in the assessments (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), but these are not the only future scenarios possible. The inclusion of climate variables important to the commodities production was based on published research, expert knowledge and data quality and availability.
Learn more in the Climate Vulnerability Assessment Project Framework.
Climate impacts: what to expect
Cherry-growing regions in NSW will continue to have high to very high climate suitability for growing cherries by 2050 under both emissions scenarios.
Cherry vulnerabilities
- Irrigation water requirements are likely to increase for cherry growing regions in the future (moderate to low confidence). The increase is likely to be greatest under the high emissions scenario.
- There is likely to be a minimal decrease in accumulated chill portions (see call-out box, page 16) during dormancy across all growing regions (high confidence), resulting in insufficient chill for budswell and budburst, and flowering. Bilpin is likely to experience a moderate reduction in accumulated chill portions (high confidence).
- Cherry firmness is a key measure of fruit quality, directly linked to freshness. Due to an expected increase in the number of days with temperatures over 33°C, Hillston is likely to have low suitability for optimal cherry firmness by 2050 without adaptation (high confidence). A reduction in cherry firmness is also likely in Young, Mudgee and Bilpin (high confidence).
Cherry opportunities
- The number of days with temperatures below –2°C is likely to decrease during budswell and budburst. This is likely to lead to a minimal to moderate increase in the climate suitability of cherries in the Armidale, Mudgee, Orange, Young and Batlow growing regions (high confidence).
- All growing regions are likely to remain highly suitable for the flowering, cell division and cell expansion phenophases (high confidence).
- The cherry industry may need to improve water efficiency through changing irrigation practices, upgrading water infrastructure or adopting new technologies.
- Planting low-chill cherry varieties may be beneficial in regions with declining accumulated chill portions. These varieties may lead to new growing areas where cherries have not previously been grown.
- Shade netting may reduce the effects of heat on cherry quality. Netting can protect the fruit against sunburn and reduce skin temperature. More research and development is needed to understand the financial and productivity impacts of this approach.
Adapting to the changing climate
Adapting to increased irrigation water requirements
- The cherry industry may need to improve water efficiency through changing irrigation practices, upgrading water infrastructure or adopting new technologies.
Adapting to low accumulated chill
- Planting low-chill cherry varieties may be beneficial in regions with declining accumulated chill portions. These varieties may lead to new growing areas where cherries have not previously been grown.
Adapting to increased extreme heat
- Shade netting may reduce the effects of heat on cherry quality. Netting can protect the fruit against sunburn and reduce skin temperature. More research and development is needed to understand the financial and productivity impacts of this approach.
Where can I find the climate suitability maps?
Maps of historical and future climate suitability for horticultural commodities were produced to demonstrate where in the state a commodity is likely to thrive or else be limited by future climatic conditions. The maps are not provided on these webpages but can be found in the Climate Vulnerability Assessment Summary Report (PDF, 41425.92 KB).
Cherry Factsheet
(PDF, 2138.15 KB)
Summary Report
(PDF, 41425.92 KB)
